Baked goods continue to rise
Upon entering the historic Ackerhalle supermarket operated by REWE in Berlin you are soon met by an impressive bakery section that draws customers into shopping across the rest of the unique store.
As bakeries close across the East German city this category is used as a footfall driver at Ackerhalle. Although it accounts for only a modest 5% of sales – equating to Euros 600,000 per week – it is a powerful part of the store’s mix. Across the 240 bakery items is a growing range of exclusive products that further fuel interest in the category. The range of pretzels was especially impressive.
Subscribe to TRBIt is a very similar story being played out in the UK where the likes of Lidl have made their in-store bakeries a key feature of their outlets. In my local Lidl it’s the bakery section that you first encounter as you pass through the turnstile and grab a basket. And there’s also the attraction of the aroma of baked bread and other such goods wafting around the store’s entrance.
As well as being both affordable and a treat – that absolutely everyone loves – the bakery category also has another powerful characteristic – it has an incredible level of frequency. Consider that in 2025 an impressive 87% of UK consumers purchased at bakeries, with 19% doing so two-three times a month, 25% weekly, and as many as 12% more than once a week. A further 71% shopped at pastry shops, according to a survey by Business Gateway.
As well as proving a powerful element within the major grocers the specialist bakeries are also performing spectacularly well. They are the second fastest-growing fast-food category behind chicken shops on the high street, with the number of outlets having expanded by 2.6% between January and September 2025 – equating to 334 new bakeries nationwide – according to data from Meaningful Vision. And the future looks bright judging by the revenues across the bakery cafes category is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5% between now and 2029/30 to the level of £1.6 billion, according to IBISWorld.
Helping fuel this growth are players like Wenzel’s the Bakers, Gregg’s, Gail’s and Cooplands who between them operate outlets across the UK. Other growing regional operators include the near-70-strong Cornish Bakeries business that has just launched a new concept RISE by Cornish Bakery that adds small plates to the mix; Rowe’s Cornish Baker’s has the same number of sites and is looking for more outlets. Meanwhile, Warren’s Bakery is expanding out from its 45 stores, with a move to higher footfall locations including its first travel retail site at Liverpool Street station.
As well as the well-funded chains there are also myriad smaller players and single-unit independents set up by entrepreneurial individuals who are recognising there is an opportunity to run their own businesses in baked goods. Anecdotal evidence of the buoyancy in the category can be seen around me in North London where Sourdough Sophia is continuing to open units in London’s ‘villages’ – including Highgate and Hampstead – having been founded during Covid-19, and Jolene has found success too in my part of London. It now has the confidence to head into Soho for its fifth outlet.
While retail and hospitality businesses face ongoing pressures on our high streets up and down the country the bakery category represents an undoubted sweet spot. Whether that is within the major supermarkets or in standalone specialist stores it seems that we can’t get enough of sourdough, bagels, pretzels, croissants and myriad other such treats.
