Planning for Black Friday: An Interview with Alberto Rodriguez Pariente, Data Analyst at PFM Intelligence
Black Friday puts enormous pressure on retail operations, and few people understand that pressure better than Alberto Rodriguez Pariente, Data Analyst at PFM Intelligence Group. With behavioural data from nearly 400 shopping centres across Europe and more than 35 million visitors counted last year, PFM has become a leading authority in understanding how people move, shop and behave across physical retail environments.
In this interview, Alberto shares data insights on what truly drives conversion on Black Friday and what retailers can do to protect margin in a volatile trading landscape.
Black Friday is often described as a make-or-break moment for retailers. From your data, is that still true for physical locations?
Absolutely, but perhaps not in the way people assume. Black Friday still creates a real sense of urgency in shopping centres and high streets. You see more people on the move, more pressure on staff and higher expectations packed into a short time frame.
Subscribe to TRBAcross almost 400 shopping centres we monitor, the uplift is concentrated between late morning and mid-afternoon. That period is when flows, dwell times, queues and till activity intensify simultaneously. What our data makes clear is that success in that window isn’t just about discounts. It’s about how well you manage people, space and offers when pressure peaks.
What patterns do you see across the nearly 400 locations you analyse?
Last year we counted more than 35 million visitors across these locations. The biggest pattern is timing: the uplift versus a regular week sits between 11:00 and 16:00.
For retailers, this means two things:
- It’s not a full day wave, it’s a very intense block of hours.
- Staffing and operations should be shaped around that block.
If your most experienced people aren’t present in these peak hours, you’re missing a major conversion opportunity. We also see a shift toward multi-day campaigns. Spreading offers across several days reduces bottlenecks and keeps shoppers more relaxed and willing to buy, rather than overwhelmed and browsing without purchasing.
What are the most important DOs for Black Friday?
Four stand out:
- Match staffing to the real footfall curve.
Forecasts should drive rotas. Those peak hours are where service quality and conversion are most closely linked. - Stage promotions across multiple days.
This smooths traffic and increases the likelihood that customers arrive ready to buy, rather than rush and hesitate. - Use real time data for live decisions.
Forecasts guide the plan, but real time data enables smart interventions: open extra tills, adjust staff positioning or trigger a flash offer in a busy zone. These moves have a measurable impact on conversion. - Optimise layout and queues.
Using technologies like LiDAR, we map dwell times, flows and chokepoints. Small layout refinements can meaningfully improve queue flow and reduce lost sales.
These aren’t theories. We see them in the data: teams that combine planning driven by forecast with live operational responsiveness consistently protect margin, even in uncertain retail conditions.
And what DON’Ts do you see retailers repeat year after year?
A few common ones:
- Don’t assume the date is fixed.
Black Friday moved from week 47 (2022/2023) to week 48 (2024/2025). That shift influences how sales flow into December and can distort year-on-year comparisons. - Don’t discount everything.
Heavy blanket discounts erode profit and reset customer expectations. Targeted incentives and controlled flash deals drive extra spend without dragging down long-term margin. - Don’t overlook staff wellbeing.
Understaffing leads to longer queues, more mistakes, lower conversion and unhappy teams. Balanced shifts and real time adjustments protect both morale and revenue. - Don’t measure visits in isolation.
High footfall can look impressive but be misleading. We’ve seen crowded stores with low conversion burning through marketing and staffing budgets without delivering ROI. Sales and margin per visitor matter far more.
How does Black Friday fit into the wider end of year retail picture?
National statistics from ONS and CBS show that December has been a weaker month in several recent years, which makes every visitor in the last quarter more valuable.
At the same time, retail often defies expectations. For example, the UK saw a surprise rise in retail sales in September 2025, proof that consumer sentiment can turn quickly.
Our own data adds another nuance: Black Friday uplifts above 10% are not as common as headlines suggest. In more than half of locations we analysed, the increase did not exceed 10%. That means retailers shouldn’t build their strategy around the assumption of dramatic traffic spikes.
If major uplifts are the exception, where should retailers focus?
Focus on the levers you can fully control:
- Conversion,
- Average transaction value,
- Operational resilience.
If those foundations are strong, you can handle both modest and high traffic scenarios. Then you add contingency thresholds for exceptional spikes, predefined actions for opening more tills, redeploying staff or adjusting promotions live.
If you had to summarise your advice for this Black Friday in one line, what would it be?
Plan for a cautious end to the year but stay extremely nimble. Use forecasts to shape the plan, real time data to adapt on the day, and targeted promotions and strong operations to protect margin.
The retailers who combine these elements are the ones who consistently turn visitors into value.
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To find out more about how PFM can help your retail operation, visit them here.
