Consumer confidence and retail sales both rise amid “Burnham bounce”
Consumer confidence has risen this month after being boosted by sun, football and the appointment of new Prime Minister.
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index has increased by six points to -17, with all measures up on June.
Subscribe to TRBWhile the forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up three points to +1 GfK’s measure for expectations for the general economic situation has risen by eight points to -28.
The major purchase index has increased eight points to -12 for July, which is three points higher than the same month last year.
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, an NIQ Company, sad: “Hot on the heels of the summer heatwaves, July has delivered a wave of optimism. This month’s six-point jump to -17 marks the largest increase in consumer confidence since November 2023.
“Motivations to make major purchases are also up eight points. The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new prime minister surely accounts for some of this bounce. There were also hopes at the start of July that the Middle East conflict might stabilise and bring UK fuel prices down.
“The feel-good factor of the FIFA World Cup will have reinforced sentiment too. However, July’s improved Overall Index Score remains within the narrow range seen since the end of 2023, and it is a decade since the headline score was in positive territory.
“For the “Burnham bounce” to be sustainable and boost consumer confidence, it will require consistent delivery by the refreshed UK government against deep cost-of-living challenges and persistent low economic growth.”
The news comes as data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that retail sales volumes edged up 1% in June, following a revised increase of 1.2% in May.
The ONS said non-store retailers’ sales rose, which it suggested was due to sales promotions and demand for items such as sports merchandise, clothing, outdoor products, and fans and air conditioning.
Clothing stores’ sales increased by 1.9%, marking their largest monthly rise since September 2025, following a boost from sales promotions and the warm weather.
