February woe for retailers
SPSL Retail Traffic Index shows consumers staying home
March 6 2003
February is more than earning its bad reputation among UK retailers according to the latest traffic analysis from SPSL.
SPSL’s figures show that UK retail traffic numbers fell by 3.7 per cent in February compared to February 2002, the worst monthly drop since May 2002. This was in spite of February 2002 also being a poor month, down 1.3 per cent on 2001.
Dr Tim Denison, director of knowledge management at SPSL said: “February is always a signpost month as it’s the first chance for consumers to settle down into normal shopping patterns. We do feel that this February shows some significant and somewhat worrying trends beginning to emerge.
“Firstly, consumers seem increasingly bargain-hungry, prepared to spend more in the sale month of January, but at the expense of February. Retail traffic in February was down by 11.8 per cent over January.
“Secondly, Spring half term is fast becoming a non-event in retailing terms. For the second year running, retail traffic levels were hardly lifted by it at all and this was a telling factor in the overall drop.
“Thirdly, Valentine’s Day was not the fillip this year that it was last. Gifts and luxuries are always the first things to be passed over when resources become scarcer and when people feel constrained to pull in their horns. Perhaps this is the first reliable sign of worse to come.
“Fourthly, retail traffic in London and the South East in particular, the region which often leads the economy, continues to remain in the doldrums, down 8.3 per cent year-on-year for February. We cannot blame the disruption on the Underground, the introduction of congestion charges or the Peace March, as figures for the areas outside the capital were just as bad, if not worse. How much of the downturn here is due to economic nervousness is unclear.
“Less clear than this is just how the impeding threat of war is weighing on people’s minds, discouraging them shopping at prominent, ‘potential target’ locations. What is clear though, is that February has been a quiet month for retailers and there is nothing to suggest that March will be any better.”
