What are the odds on Tesco bidding for Somerfield?

Half its owners (desperately) want to sell now while the other (not so desperate) half are willing put the sale on hold and wait for a better price later.

The problem is that only the Co-op has tabled an offer and this is understood to have been well below the £2 billion to £2.5 billion level that Somerfield's owners are asking for. Asda, Marks & Spencer, Waitrose, Morrisons and Sainsbury's have also shown an interest in the grocer but have all so far failed to put forward a bid despite the fact they must all be licking their lips at getting their hands on certain stores in the group's estate.

What is strange about this line-up is that is does not contain Tesco. Everybody has written them off as being unlikely bidders because of the high chance of a referral to the Competition Commission and the expectation that it would have to offload a lot of the stores for it to be given the green light on such a deal.

But market analysis specialists CACI reckon this would be a mistake because using the criteria that would likely be employed by the Competition Commission it found that Tesco would only have to sell-off a similar number of stores to that of its major rivals.

This is the case for both Somerfield's 15,000 sq ft-and-above sized stores, as well as its 3,000 to 15,000 sq ft units. Yet again, we come to the conclusion that it would be a serious error to write off Tesco. It just might prove to be the successful bidder for Somerfield at some point down the line.